How to Handicap a Horse Race

It is tough to teach a person “how” to Handicap a race. There are so many variables and each person is bound to have some they consider to be more important than others. For this case we are covering the basics of handicapping a flat race, the main concern when covering a harness race (in addition to the points below) is that starting position plays a more important role in the harness race. 

Before you begin it is important to understand what you are reading in the Racing Form. Most racing forms have a guide explaining what all the numbers and symbols mean. Be sure you are familiar with that. Most tracks sell the racing forms the day ahead of the race, a shrewd handicapper will pick up the racing form early and study it. Some racing forms have more information than others.

1.  Class. If a horse is making any change in the class of race it is racing in, that will make a difference. A horse who was racing against $10,000 claimers and is now dropping to run against $8500 claimers, could indicate one of two things, the owner is trying to get rid of a poor horse, or trying to sneak in an easier win.

2.  Distance. Most horses favor one distance over another. Watch for any changes of distance, and if the horse is a seasoned one, compare to see what distance the horse ran best in previous years.

3.  Gender. A mare racing against males will generally be less favored to win, all other things being equal.

4.  Workouts. These are very important for handicapping maidens and first time starters. The horses most recent work outs are a way to judge it against other horses that worked out on that day. How long were the work outs? If work outs are all short, will the horse be ready for a longer race? A bullet workout means the horse was the fastest workout at that distance on that day.

5.  Track Conditions. Most horses prefer to run on a “Fast” or “Good” track, but a few horses excel in the “Slop” or wet conditions. Check track conditions for a horses previous races to compare to how it should hold up under current track conditions.

6.  Excuses. In the racing form there are three or four words covering briefly how a horse ran, it might explain if the horse had a difficult or easy trip, on the previous races. Examples are: “Boxed in”, “4 wide”, or “ran well, failed”.

7.  Compare. Sometimes two or more horses in a race, also ran against each other in previous races, by studying all the details you may be able to make a better prediction of how todays race will unfold.

8.  The Odds. In the racing form the predicted odds for a race will be given, however as betting occurs these odds change, depending on how the public feels. An owner or trainer can bet on their own horse, but only to win. Often the first flash of the odds board will show if somebody has placed a lot of money on a horse to win. Odds do not determine if a horse is going to win, only if the public “Thinks” a horse is going to win. Odds also determine the pay out on winning tickets.

9.  The Connections. Some owners, jockeys, or trainers, are superior to others and have more wins. Some people use this fact in their handicapping. If a trainer or owner has two horses in the same race, they must wear the same number. Usually 1 and 1a.

10.  Past Races. The racing form will give a brief account of a horses past races, showing where they placed at certain times in the race and there finish time. Few people take the opportunity, but most larger tracks also have taped past races that a person can watch if they want.

11.  Speed Index. Horses are given a number to indicate their overall quality and speed. This number does not predict how a race will run, but typically horses with higher numbers will beat those with lower numbers.

12.  Weight. A horse will carry a required amount of weight, the more weight the slower a horse will go, especially over a longer distance.

13.  Equipment changes. Watch for equipment changes, sometimes the first time a change is made it has no impact, but the second race out, it does. This includes the use of medication such as Lasix.

14.  Parade to the Post.  Watch how the horse acts, is it calm, or so stressed sweat is running down its legs?  A horse that takes long strides at a relaxed walk, might be a better choice than one who takes short strides while at a relaxed walk.  This is something important to look at for first-time starters, horses who have not raced before. 

14.  Color and Name. A lot of newcomers to the track bet on the color of a horse, or if it has a good name. While there may be some truth to the color theory, a dark horse might get hotter on a sunny day, the name may indicate if the horse had a well known parent.

Photo from Wikimedia.

Some races are tougher to handicap than others. If a person is smart, they are better off to only place bets on the races they are confident they handicapped well.