What Will Barack Obama's Political Future Look Like?

How did Barack Obama make it into the presidency?  It is difficult to conceive that a newcomer to national politics could make such a rise as quickly as he did.  Now that he has attained the office of president a consideration of his political future is in order. It is difficult to turn something small into something huge in a short time. With smoke and mirrors, you can create an illusion of big. 

He has been compared to Abraham Lincoln and John Kennedy.  One was a great president and the other had tremedous public appeal and charisma.  There is little doubt about Mr. Obama's public appeal and charisma.  Whether he will be a great president remains hidden in the clouds of the future.

He was able to move from the Illinois statehouse to Capitol Hill because there was little opposition from the Republican side to slow him down. At that point, Mr. Obama had not been exposed to the rigors of a truly large and hotly contested race. By throwing his hat into the presidential arena, he passed this test . Like sports, it is easy to look powerful when you are playing against significantly less talent teams or people.

Facing off against the political machine of the Clintons and a charismatic John Edwards, Barack Obama had the savvy to go underground to the grass roots.  His use of the Internet was nothing short of inspired brilliance.  It allowed him to motivate the youth of this nation to rally behind him and his "Yes we can," mantra.  Politically, Mr. Obama ran the race like a champion.  He was aggressive when needed, but pulled back when introspection and course corrections became necessary.

Sitting in the Oval Office is not the same as running a political campaign.  It is easy to attack a weak and wounded president.  It is harder to fill the office and continue to look good.  Mr. Obama is not short on rhetoric or ideas. Whether either of these will serve his political future depends on what happens in the real world.  Talk is still cheap.  Getting programs through a wary Congress at a time when the general populace of the United States is hurting and cynical may be another matter.  So, far he seems to be getting nearly everything that he has pushed. 

The sleeping gorillas of health care reform, educational funding and reform, job creation, and restoring the nations financial system to health lurk just ahead.  It is unlikely that continuing to bury the nation in debt is the answer.  His approach of "it is going to take a long time" will not fly for very long in a U. S. citizenry with short memory and huge intolerance for discomfort.  The same is true of his second most favorite line:  "I inherited a mess."  Everyone knows that.  He was elected to fix it.

By the end of 2010, the line will be formed of serious contenders for the 2012 elections.  If Mr. Obama falters even a step and the nation sinks into depression, his comparison will be to Herbert Hoover.  That will not be construed as a bright endorsement of his political future.  However, if the economy rebounds as it did for Bill Clinton, he will sail nearly uncontested back into the White House for a second term.  He will deserve it if his programs rejuvenate a flagging economy and restores public confidence in the banking system and housing markets.