2010 Nba Playoffs: (4) Boston Celtics Vs. (5) Miami Heat

After stumbling into the NBA Playoffs, the Atlantic Division Champion Boston Celtics are preparing for a difficult first round playoff series as a #4 seed against the #5 seed Miami Heat.  The Celtics struggled through most of the second half, winning 18 of 32 games after the All-Star break.  Miami, on the other hand, finished the season on a tear.  The Heat posted a record of 18-4 in March and April including nine wins in their last ten games.

Home court advantage:

The Celtics did a poor job (by their standards) of defending their home court during the regular season.  They actually finished with a better record on the road (26-15) than at home (24-17).  Miami displayed a similar trend throughout the season, winning only one more game at home than on the road.  On the surface, home court advantage may not really exist in this series, but the intensity of both the players and the atmosphere is stepped up in the playoffs, so home court advantage could remain a big boost for the Celtics.

Key Match-ups:

Ray Allen vs. Dwayne Wade:

Two star shooting guards with two completely different styles will comprise the biggest match-up in the series.  Allen had a mediocre first half of the season, but after the trade deadline he started a stretch of great shooting that has yet to slow.  Ray shot 52.4 percent from the field after the All-Star break, including a 40.3 percent clip from three point range.  He has been the Celtics’ most consistent offensive player over the last two months.

Wade is the engine that makes the Heat go.  Wade is always among the league leaders in points, assists, and steals, and the 2009-10 season was no different.  Defensively, there is little Allen will do to stop Wade.  Allen can’t stay in front of Wade a.  If he shoots as well as he did toward the end of the season, Allen will give the Celtics a big lift to counter Wade.

Kevin Garnett vs. Michael Beasley:

The health of Kevin Garnett could be the deciding factor in not only this series, but for the whole of Boston’s playoff hopes.  Garnett has seen his role reduced in the offense, but he remains the center of the Celtics’ defense.  Beasley was Miami’s second leading scorer in the regular season, though injuries and inconsistency marred his second half.  After the All-Star break, Beasley averaged just 13 points per game on 43 percent shooting, posting five 20-point games, but eight games in single figures.  If he is able to play at a high level for more than 30 minutes a night, Garnett can make Beasley a non-factor and limit the heat to one go-to offensive player.

Kendrick Perkins vs. Jermaine O’Neal:

Outside of Dwayne Wade, the center position could yield the Heat’s biggest advantage in the series.  Perkins and O’Neal are two players heading in opposite directions.  Perkins had a great first half, but faded big time as the season progressed.  Before suffering an ankle injury in the final weeks, O’Neal was playing his best basketball of the season, giving Miami a strong post presence on offense.  The battle of the centers will depend on how well O’Neal’s ankle has healed.

Paul Pierce vs. Quentin Richardson:

Pierce remains one of the NBA’s most efficient scorers.  He was once again the Celtics’ leading scorer in 2009-10 as he has been for every season in this decade.  When the Celtics need him, he steps his game up, and he always saves his best for the playoffs.  Richardson is a three point specialist.  He knows his role and performs it well, but the small forward position is a huge advantage for the Celtics.

Rajon Rondo vs. Carlos Arroyo:

The point guard position represents the biggest advantage for either team in the series.  For the Celtics, Rondo has the ability to take over a game.  Outside of Wade, Rondo is the biggest game-changer in the series.  When he is playing loose, the Celtics are a championship caliber team.  Arroyo has played respectably as a mid-season replacement for the struggling Mario Chalmers.  He is a solid playmaker, but he has no chance to stay in front of Rondo defensively.

Benches:

On paper, the Celtics have a more talented bench than Miami, but in performance, the Heat’s bench has played far better basketball lately.  Udonis Haslem averaged a double-double over the last two months of the season.  Dorell Wright has become a solid reserve scorer.  Center Joel Anthony gives them a solid interior defender and a shot-blocking presence.

For the Celtics, Nate Robinson was brought over to serve as an offensive spark off the bench, but he has struggled to break into Doc Rivers’s rotation thanks to inconsistent play.  The team’s main offseason acquisitions, Rasheed Wallace has struggled with his shot all season long and Marquis Daniels has mostly fallen out of the rotation.  The athletic Tony Allen has taken over the backup point guard duties, giving the Celtics a good perimeter defender and an effective if inconsistent slashing scorer.  Glen Davis is the Celtics sparkplug, capable of infusing energy and physical play in the second unit.  Michael Finley has taken most of Daniels’s minutes and at least gives Boston a great outside shooter.

Prediction:

Though these teams have been going in different directions, the Celtics remain the deeper team with significantly more firepower.  This could be the most tightly contested series of the first round, but when it is done, the Celtics will be en route to the semifinals. They may not go far, but the Boston Celtics will defeat the Miami Heat in seven games.