2010 Fantasy Baseball's Top 50

As a longtime fantasy baseball addict, I have tried every different strategy to win a fantasy league. The following list of the 50 most valuable fantasy baseball players will be a guideline to the value to a team that each player will produce. What I am trying to emphasize is that at times the depth of the position will dictate where a player lands on this list. It is by no means a pure ranking of the amount of points that will be scored, but rather a guideline to helping one draft a solid team. At the end of the day, you have to fill the slots on the field, and “position scarcity” will play a part in my rankings. If a position’s talent is top heavy, or there’s a significant drop in talent, the rankings will reflect that.

1)    Albert Pujols –  1B STL – Sure you could say that 1B is deep and you’d rather shore up an up the middle position early, but when it comes down to it, whether it is roto or H2H, the team that accumulates the most stats wins, and this guy brings it all. A base line around 115-40-120-8-.330, with the upside to reach 125-50-135-15-.350, Albert Pujols is the best baseball player, and is it at the point in his career that has historically been where the elite players of the game experience a slight up tick in production. The early thirties are when unparalleled physical ability meets a decade’s worth of experience. Athletic enough to ensure the decline isn’t coming for several seasons, he is the pick with #1 overall.

2)    Hanley Ramirez –  SS FLA – Hanley Ramirez is a 5 category stud. He is already the best bet in baseball to put up a 30-30 season, and is just entering his power prime. Most sites will talk about the mythical “age 27”, but I’d rater be the guy holding the age 26 player who has 4 full years experience. Hard to imagine the best might still be in front of him. While he may never swipe 51 bags again (moving from leadoff to the three hole will limit SB chances), we know he has the potential to hit 30+ hrs, steal 40+ bases, and hit over .320. Set a career high in avg last season, but was propped up by an unsustainably high .384 BABIP (read: expect some regression here).

3)    Alex Rodriguez – 3B, NYY – A-Rod went .286-78-30-100-14 last year and that was without a single AB in April. Take into account that his .232 avg over 159 May/June months was his lowest back-to-back month avg since 1999 (it also dipped that low in his first full season in 1995), and it is evident that he wasn’t 100% after his return from spring hip surgery. Draft with confidence that at 34 he’s still one of the top baseball players of the generation, take in to account the hitter friendly Yankee Stadium 2.0, a lineup that will provide ample RBI opportunities as well as batsmen to drive him in when he’s on, and you get the best third basemen in the game.

4)    Chase Utley – 2B, PHI – Utley is the best at a weak position, and while he won’t bring the overall numbers of a Braun/Kemp, it is always better to fill the shallow positions early. Another star with the added bonus of a bandbox home park and a potent offense, there’s no reason Utley can’t bring .290-100-30-100-15 from the second weakest position in the game.

5)    Ryan Braun – OF, MIL – At the ripe age of 25, Braun hit a robust .320-113-32-114-20, and he’s just entering his prime. The best OF in baseball has monster power (avg 34 HR his first 3 seasons), and is far from a hacker with his BB% on the rise for three straight seasons while simultaneously paring his strikeout down. Translation: He’s becoming a better hitter, and he’s entering his power prime. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a 40+ HRs in 2010.

6)    Matt Kemp – OF, LAD – Kemp is another young budding star who may be headed to a breakout year. After stealing 34+ steals in the last two years, it is evident he has wheels, but was last years power a harbinger for future 30-30 seasons or a blip on the radar. Obviously as the 6th overall pick I’m going with the latter. Like Braun before him, Kemp has upped his BB% for three straight seasons, and selectivity at the plate usually has increased power follow. He scored 97 runs last season while driving in 101, and he spent half the season in the bottom of the order. With my first round pick, I always aim for across the board production, and Kemp does just that.

7)    Tim Lincecum – SP, SF – Every season a pitcher or two ends up in the top 10 player rater, and usually it’s a one of a handful of elite options that rises to the occasion for that season. Lincecum was that guy in 2008, striking out 265 over his first full season, and it was natural to assume some sort of regression and project him somewhere in the 2nd to 3rd round going into the 2009 season. Well 2009 has come and gone and all tiny Tim did was strike out another 261 batters, and the moral of the story is don’t make this mistake twice. Last year Lincecum showcased an unreal changeup to go with his otherworldly curveball and merely astounding fastball. He is the best pitcher in baseball and now that he’s pitched 220+ innings in back-to-back season, he is as sure a bet to win you a fantasy title along with that Cy Young he’s penciled in for.

8)    Miguel Carbera – 1B, Det – A down year by his standards, Miguel turned in a .324-96-34-103-6 line. The first time in 6 full seasons he has failed to drive in 112 runs, expect a bounce back to prominence this season. Doesn’t have the power ceiling of Howard or Fielder, but much safer bet to hit .300+ with upside to go .330-100-35-120-5. If you wonder why I’d rather have the 35 Hrs and 120 RBIs over Howard’s potential 50-140, just check ESPN’s 09 player rater. Howard turned in a lucky season with an above average BABIP (.330) and still only ranked one spot ahead of Miggy.

9)    Prince Fielder – 1B, MIL – There’s no better power-hitting tandem in baseball than Braun and Fielder. Fielder turned in a bounce back season that saw him hit a career high .299, with 46 HRs, and 141 RBIs (also a career high). Still on the right side of 27, Fielder offers a similar power ceiling to Howard, without the risk of him completely destroying your batting average.

10)    Mark Teixeira – 1B, NYY – While Tex has been a notoriously slow starter for his career (and most switch hitters are as it takes them longer to get into a comfort zone on both sides of the plate), April 2009 was just down right ugly for the newest nine figure earner. There could have been any number of reasons, pressing to live up to the contract, adjusting to the NY limelight, not having his best bud A-rod in the lineup. Whatever the reason, after April was in the books, Teixeira went back to his mashing ways and ended up leading the league in RBI’s (122) as well as tying for the top spot in HR’s (39). No reason to think he can’t repeat last years numbers, and with a full season of A-rod, he’s got a chance to surpass them.

11)    Carl Crawford – OF, TB – SB’s are more valuable than HR’s tit for tat, if you don’t believe me go check where Crawford and Ellsbury ended up on the player raters from 2009. Best power option out of the 40+ SB group.

12)    David Wright – 3B, NYM – Prior to 2009 3-year avg was .313-108-29-116-23. Giving him a bit of a pass because he lost his #1, 4 and 5 hitters to injury for most of the season.

13)    Roy Halladay – SP, PHI – Like a fine wine, keeps getting better with age. Logged his second 200+ K campaign last year, and with a shift to the NL (should see the P atleast 60 times) expect the numbers to get better. With that offense behind him, best bet in baseball to record 20 wins.

14)    Evan Longoria – 3B, TB – More power potential than Wright, but comes up just short in the batting average and SB categories.

15)    Ryan Howard – 1B, PHI – Batting average woes scare me, could easily end up hitting .240 and bring similar production to mid-rounders Dunn and Pena. Gets a bump in H2H as he seemingly always catches fire in Sept.

16)    Troy Tulowitzki – SS, COL – Added a new trick (20 SB) to his already impressive line of .292-102-32-92.

17)    Jacoby Ellsbury – OF, BOS – 50 SB floor, if he could learn to take a few more walks, he’d see his run totals get to Pedroia levels.

18)   Ian Kinsler – 2B, TEX – 2008’s .319 batting average is beginning to look like an outlier (a LD% 4.2 points higher than career average) but great power/speed combo at the keystone.

19)    Justin Upton – OF, ARI – Could easily be a first round producer at the end of the season. 40 HRs and 25 SBs a possibility.

20)    Matt Holliday – OF, STL – Second half showed that he’s not just a Coors product. Will have someone on base (most likely Pujols with his .450 OBP) for most of his at bats. SB completely dried up after trade, something to keep track of in April.

21)    Mark Reynolds – 3B/1B, ARI – Will strikeout… A lot. Who cares? Reynolds is going to hit 35+ HRs and steal 20+ bases. Wouldn’t draft him as a 1B because he has more value at 3B.

22)    Felix Hernandez – SP, SEA – 217 K’s and he’s still only 23. No statistical outliers in his numbers last season just became a smarter pitcher. The innings on his young arm are the only thing keeping him out of the top 20. If he stays healthy he could be a huge bargain here.

23)    Zack Greinke – SP, KC – If I had any confidence at all that KC would be able to get him to 18 W I would have Greinke as the second pitcher off the board.  Unfortunately he plays for a terrible team and that actually affects his value.

24)    Jose Reyes – SS, NYM – Risky move, as so much of his value is tied into his SB numbers. As long as he’s healthy he’s a lock for 110 runs and 50 SB.

25)    Joe Mauer – C, MIN – If he can get to 25+ HRs again, this ranking is going to look downright silly, but catchers just don’t play for 150+ games. Last season Mauer was only 8 games off his career high and he missed the entire first month.

26)    CC Sabathia – SP NYY

27)    Grady Sizemore – OF, CLE

28)    Jimmy Rollins – SS, PHI

29)    Ryan Zimmerman – 3B, WAS

30)    Pablo Sandoval – 3B, SF

31)    Robinson Cano – 2B, NYY

32)    Justin Verlander – SP, DET

33)    Derek Jeter – SS, NYY

34)    Victor Martinez – C/1B, BOS

35)    Joey Votto – 1B, CIN

36)    Dan Haren – SP, ARI

37)    Dustin Pedroia – 2B, BOS

38)    Ichiro – OF, SEA

39)    Brandon Phillips – 2B, CIN

40)   Brian McCann – C, ATL

41)    Johan Santana – SP, NYM

42)    Kevin Youkillis – 3B, BOS

43)    Brian Roberts – 2B, BAL

44)  Jayson Werth – OF, PHI

45)    Jason Bay – OF, NYM

46)   Aramis Ramirez – 3B, CHI

47)    Cliff Lee – SP, SEA

48)    Adam Lind – OF, TOR

49)    Yovani Gallardo – SP, MIL

50)   Tommy Hanson – SP, ATL