How India can Qualify?

The Pakistan-Australia match which will in a sense decide India’s fate, is underway and Australia after winning the toss chose to bowl. Pakistan is not playing its full-fledged unit and trying out on different combinations as they are already qualified. From India’s viewpoint, there are a couple of permutations and combinations that could work. Here are the possible scenarios that could come into existence, as India try to get qualified for the semis.

SCENARIO I:

If India loose to West Indies or Australia wins against Pakistan, in both cases India will be knocked out and Australia along with already qualified Pakistan will head into the semis. Furthermore, even if either of the match ends abandoned, Australia will again qualify and Indians will pack their bags!

SCENARIO II:

This is an interesting as well as a complex scenario. If Australia looses against Pakistan and India wins against West Indies, India then have a chance to qualify for the semis. But, this is not all, India will need to win handsomely and hope Pakistan too wins the game in a mighty fashion. Nevertheless, forget the abstract entities, and let’s head towards some complex Math!

India is in a very clear language, 104 runs behind the Oz’s as Australia won their first contest by 50 runs (i.e. +50) and India lost their first game by 54 runs (i.e. -54). Hence, the NRR now of India is -1.08 and that of Australia is +1.00. India, if hopes to qualify will need to cover this 104 run difference by hook or crook. Further, as already Pakistan is batting first, the way India need to cope with these sundries will depend on the team batting first in India-West Indies game. Here are the possible cases:

Case I: India bat first

Consider, for example, Pakistan scoring 300 in allotted 50 overs and Australia loosing the game by 70 runs. In this case, India then would be 34 runs behind Australia (remember 104!) and would then need to win the game against West Indies by 35 runs. If this thing happens, India clearly would qualify. Thereafter India’s NRR will become -0.19 and Australia’s be        -0.20, clearly indicating India’s qualification.

Case II: India bat second

Here the things get a bit more complicated. Let the above example prevail and consider once again Australia loosing by 70 runs. Now, for India to get more NRR than the Oz’s, they’d need to beat West Indies within the allotted 50 overs i.e. chase the required target within the, in our overs such that India’s NRR can be over the Australians example being -0.19. Here are the possibilities to what could eventually happen if we continue with our above example:

Runs scored by Windies after 50 overs or until the 10th wicket fell

Max number of overs India can utilize to chase the total and get qualified

100

41

200

43

300

44

The above chart shows how many overs India could take to achieve a particular target and keep the NRR above the Australians, in our case ~ -0.19.

It is a daunting task in front of the Indians and hope MSD does the Math right! India will hope Pakistan crushes Australia and things go India’s way against the Windies.

India play Windies today in a day-night encounter at the New Wanderers Stadium, Jo’burg.